NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF)
Valuation Overview•Is NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 58/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NREF demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (46.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (137.6% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 128.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.7M | +14.3% | +46.2% | +45.3% | — | |
| EBITDA | $34.0M | — | +80.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $21.4M | +260.0% | +149.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.48 | +189.2% | +137.6% | +11.1% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$4.5M | -21.7% | -29.6% | -7.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 90.2% | 89.6% | 91.6% | 83.1% |
| Operating Margin | 128.8% | 89.0% | 82.6% | 40.9% |
| Net Margin | 83.3% | 47.7% | 56.7% | 27.8% |
| FCF Margin | 18.2% | 39.9% | 84.9% | 80.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.41 | $0.43 | +4.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.48 | $0.48 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.42 | $0.51 | +21.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.43 | $0.43 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.46 | $0.41 | -10.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.78 | $0.83 | +6.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.49 | $0.75 | +53.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.45 | $0.68 | +51.1% |
Total return is +23.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -1.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +12.6% | +3.3% | — |
| 1Y | +23.5% | -1.5% | +14.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +13.8% | -6.2% | +44.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +4.7% | -8.2% | +52.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.0% | -9.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $46.95 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $15.00 (implying +0.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 58/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.3%.
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. pays a 3.9% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +14.3% 1Y revenue growth and +189.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +46.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +0.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. include: -16.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.60x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.