MODEL VERDICT
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $316.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $319.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $302.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $297.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $296.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $277.01 | -12.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $296.18 | -6.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $335.61 | +6.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $353.88 | +12.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $330.16 | +4.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $285.47 | -9.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $483.02 | +52.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $286.37 | -9.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $291.33 | -7.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $336.73 | +6.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $330.33 | +4.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $300.76 | -4.8% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $279 | $305 | $332 | $358 | $385 |
| Conservative (7%) | $286 | $313 | $340 | $367 | $394 |
| Base Case (10.2%) | $295 | $323 | $351 | $379 | $407 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $305 | $334 | $363 | $392 | $421 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.43 | 22.64 | 17.75 | 30.31 | 4.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.69 | 18.05 | 15.18 | 23.13 | 3.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.58 | 14.90 | 12.29 | 16.99 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 33.53 | 28.45 | 25.53 | 64.76 | 13.94 |
| P/FFO | 15.57 | 15.21 | 12.93 | 19.25 | 2.50 |
| P/TBV | 4.20 | 4.17 | 3.31 | 5.41 | 0.67 |
| P/AFFO | 35.87 | 29.74 | 22.83 | 69.27 | 16.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.23 | 4.17 | 3.40 | 5.41 | 0.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.16 | 4.56 | 4.38 | 6.63 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NSC's fair value at $300.76 vs the current price of $316.06, implying -4.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $300.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $278.51 (P10) to $319.56 (P90), with a median of $298.77.
NSC's current P/E of 24.8x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -5.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
48 analysts cover NSC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $332.00 (range: $297.00 — $360.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NSC trades at the 4440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4950.0% to approximately $472. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.