Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$168.62
→
Intrinsic$225.94
+34%
$147.08$225.94$382.80
Market implies 9% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NVS could have 34% upside at 15% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $169, the market prices in 9% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (15%).
Range: Bear $147 → Bull $383. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $284 | $310 | $338 | $367 |
| 10% | $190 | $208 | $226 | $246 |
| 12% | $141 | $153 | $167 | $181 |
| 14% | $110 | $120 | $131 | $142 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($383) offers 127% upside at 18% growth, 8% discount
- 25% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (9%) ≤ historical CAGR (15%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($147) implies 13% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$20.40B
Year 2$23.53B
Year 3$27.15B
Year 4$31.32B
Year 5$36.13B
Terminal$572.46B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$17.69BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.