MODEL VERDICT
Norwood Financial Corp. (NWFL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $34.19 | +9.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $35.02 | +12.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $49.88 | +59.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $37.44 | +19.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.21 | +15.8% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.15 | 13.86 | 8.55 | 17.37 | 3.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.48 | 14.41 | 3.15 | 20.78 | 6.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.30 | 16.29 | 3.00 | 304.02 | 110.26 |
| P/FCF | 11.34 | 11.06 | 7.63 | 14.65 | 2.69 |
| P/FFO | 36.01 | 14.15 | 8.04 | 178.87 | 63.06 |
| P/TBV | 1.59 | 1.76 | 1.15 | 1.99 | 0.39 |
| P/AFFO | 13.14 | 13.52 | 8.44 | 17.98 | 3.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.47 | 0.97 | 1.79 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.17 | 2.86 | 2.15 | 4.56 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWFL's fair value at $36.21 vs the current price of $31.27, implying +15.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.40 (P10) to $41.56 (P90), with a median of $37.29.
NWFL's current P/E of -1563.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -10646.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover NWFL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NWFL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.