Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$26.78
→
Intrinsic$36.40
+36%
$24.51$36.40$58.99
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NWS could have 36% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $27, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $25 → Bull $59. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $45 | $48 | $52 | $57 |
| 10% | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
| 12% | $24 | $25 | $28 | $30 |
| 14% | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($59) offers 120% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 26% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($25) implies 8% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$872.40M
Year 2$1.05B
Year 3$1.26B
Year 4$1.51B
Year 5$1.81B
Terminal$26.62B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$727.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.