MODEL VERDICT
News Corporation (NWS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $26.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $26.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $26.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $27.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $30.20 | Below threshold | -13.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $25.35 | -5.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $34.24 | +27.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $21.99 | -17.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $23.01 | -14.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $48.45 | +80.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $27.16 | +1.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $27.83 | +3.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $17.16 | -35.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $21.99 | -17.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $22.97 | -14.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.91 | +7.9% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.20 | 38.69 | 17.56 | 98.92 | 28.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.32 | 23.89 | 13.35 | 30.82 | 5.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.47 | 8.58 | 5.82 | 13.35 | 3.10 |
| P/FCF | 22.13 | 23.55 | 12.78 | 30.55 | 5.98 |
| P/FFO | 24.17 | 21.94 | 9.62 | 42.66 | 14.10 |
| P/TBV | 6.36 | 5.77 | 3.12 | 11.31 | 2.76 |
| P/AFFO | 66.97 | 36.09 | 19.90 | 179.91 | 66.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.45 | 1.46 | 0.83 | 1.94 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.49 | 1.43 | 0.85 | 2.11 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWS's fair value at $28.91 vs the current price of $26.78, implying +7.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.18 (P10) to $36.23 (P90), with a median of $30.09.
NWS's current P/E of 33.1x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +21.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.2x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
33 analysts cover NWS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7800.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.