Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$24.29
→
Intrinsic$44.14
+82%
$29.75$44.14$71.44
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NWSA could have 82% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $30 → Bull $71. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $55 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| 10% | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| 12% | $29 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| 14% | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($71) offers 194% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (10%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($30) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$908.75M
Year 2$1.14B
Year 3$1.42B
Year 4$1.77B
Year 5$2.22B
Terminal$32.65B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$727.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.