MODEL VERDICT
News Corporation (NWSA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $26.47 | Pending | -14.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $25.35 | +4.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $29.66 | +22.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $68.44 | +181.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $23.01 | -5.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $32.43 | +33.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $27.16 | +11.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $28.59 | +17.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $17.62 | -27.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $68.44 | +181.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $22.97 | -5.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.28 | +53.5% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $31 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $23 | $27 | $32 | $36 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.41 | 47.11 | 12.62 | 94.42 | 30.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.03 | 21.00 | 14.40 | 29.03 | 5.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.12 | 11.43 | 6.53 | 15.23 | 3.15 |
| P/FCF | 21.88 | 23.35 | 12.61 | 30.89 | 6.24 |
| P/FFO | 14.70 | 11.66 | 8.23 | 25.19 | 7.28 |
| P/TBV | 6.75 | 5.72 | 3.04 | 10.80 | 3.12 |
| P/AFFO | 62.48 | 27.85 | 12.08 | 218.61 | 79.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.45 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.83 | 1.91 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWSA's fair value at $37.28 vs the current price of $24.29, implying +53.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.78 (P10) to $47.00 (P90), with a median of $37.64.
NWSA's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 33.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -64.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover NWSA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.40 (range: $32.40 — $32.40), implying +33.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.2% is 9.9 percentage points above the 6-year average (2.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$18. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWSA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2590.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.