Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$227.01
→
Intrinsic$329.56
+45%
$208.75$329.56$569.57
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NXPI could have 45% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $227, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $209 → Bull $570. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $428 | $465 | $505 | $547 |
| 10% | $278 | $303 | $330 | $358 |
| 12% | $200 | $218 | $237 | $258 |
| 14% | $151 | $165 | $180 | $196 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($570) offers 151% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- 31% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (16%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($209) implies 8% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.03B
Year 2$3.79B
Year 3$4.73B
Year 4$5.92B
Year 5$7.39B
Terminal$117.17B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.42BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.