Upside case
Bull case
$741+136.6%
NXPI would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
32 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering NXPI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$243
-22.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$354 – $741
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $79.1B
NXPI price targets
Three scenarios for where NXPI stock could go
Current
~$313
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $313
Bear
$354
Base
$563
Bull
$741
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$563+79.6%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$354+13.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NXPI down roughly 13% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
NXP Semiconductors is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures mixed-signal analog and digital chips for automotive, industrial IoT, mobile, and communication infrastructure applications. It generates revenue primarily from automotive semiconductors (~50% of sales) and industrial/IoT chips (~25%), with the remainder from mobile and communication infrastructure products. The company's key advantage is its deep embedded relationships with automotive OEMs—particularly in vehicle networking, security, and electrification—where its chips are designed into platforms for multiple vehicle generations.
Market Cap
$79.1B
Revenue TTM
$12.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
21.0%
NXPI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.72/$2.68
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.11/$3.12
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.35/$3.31
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.05/$2.98
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.72/$2.68 | +1.5% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.11/$3.12 | -0.3% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.35/$3.31 | +1.2% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.05/$2.98 | +2.3% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.5B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$14.9B
+10.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.85
+22.8% YoY
FY2
$14.67
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.0B
FCF Margin: 23.4%
Next Earnings
July 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.52
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
NXPI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NXPI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
26.3%
+137.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 26.3%, up 137.9% YoY.
NXPI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $701 — implies +123.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
123.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NXPI
39.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+61% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NXPI
39.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+36% premium
vs NXPI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
39.4x
vs
5Y Average
23.7x
+66% premium
Forward PE
21.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+13%
Technology
22.3x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
39.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+61%
Technology
29.0x
+36%
5Y Avg
23.7x
+66%
PEG Ratio
0.35x
S&P 500
1.66x
-79%
Technology
1.51x
-77%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+40%
Technology
16.6x
+28%
5Y Avg
14.4x
+48%
Price/FCF
32.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+58%
Technology
19.2x
+70%
5Y Avg
23.5x
+39%
Price/Sales
6.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+109%
Technology
2.4x
+164%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+46%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
S&P 500
1.91%
-33%
Technology
1.11%
+16%
5Y Avg
1.66%
-23%
| Metric | NXPI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NXPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.3x | 18.8x+13% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 39.4x | 24.4x+61% | 29.0x+36% | 23.7x+66% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.35x | 1.66x-79% | 1.51x-77% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.3x | 15.2x+40% | 16.6x+28% | 14.4x+48% |
| Price/FCF | 32.6x | 20.7x+58% | 19.2x+70% | 23.5x+39% |
| Price/Sales | 6.4x | 3.1x+109% | 2.4x+164% | 4.4x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.29% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.66% |
NXPI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNXPI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NXPI generates $3.0B in free cash flow at a 23.4% margin — 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.0× FCF
~3.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$899M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
252M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNXPI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Mixed financial performance
NXP reported mixed results with Q4 sales growth but a full-year decline in sales and net income, raising concerns about consistent profitability.
High Risk
Automotive demand sensitivity
Investors remain cautious about NXP's exposure to automotive demand trends, which could impact recovery and growth in 2026.
Medium
Guidance uncertainty
Fresh Q1 2026 guidance introduces uncertainty, as the market evaluates management's confidence in execution amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Despite improved fundamentals, negative market reaction suggests lingering investor skepticism about NXP's near-term prospects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NXPI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
NXP Semiconductors demonstrates robust financial performance, attracting investor interest and driving shareholder value.
Growth strategies
NXP Semiconductors has outlined effective strategies for growth, positioning the company for future success.
Investor and analyst focus
The company is a focal point for investors and analysts, with detailed stock analysis and price targets available.
Real-time stock tracking
NXP Semiconductors' stock is closely monitored with real-time price data and comprehensive financial overviews.
MarketBeat coverage
MarketBeat provides extensive analysis and headlines on NXP Semiconductors, aiding investment decisions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NXPI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$313.27
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$183.00
+71.2% from the low
52-Week High
$339.95
-7.8% from the high
1 Month
+7.40%
3 Month
+62.58%
YTD
+41.6%
1 Year
+48.2%
3Y CAGR
+17.0%
5Y CAGR
+10.2%
10Y CAGR
+13.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NXPI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.3x
vs 41.9x median
-49% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +2.8% median
+148% above peer median
Net Margin
21.0%
vs 8.9% median
+135% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $79.1B | 21.3x | +6.8% | 21.0% | Buy | -22.6% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $69.7B | 61.0x | +3.2% | 1.2% | Buy | -4.5% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $47.7B | 39.4x | +2.8% | 9.5% | Buy | -22.5% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 14.5x | +0.2% | 8.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NXPI Dividend and Capital Return
NXPI returns 2.4% total yield, led by a 1.29% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
Payout Ratio
50.7%
How NXPI Splits Its Return
Div 1.29%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 1.29%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.3%
5Y Div CAGR
22.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$899M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
252M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.06 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $4.06 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% |
| 2023 | $4.06 | +20.0% | 1.8% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $3.38 | +50.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsNXPI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $243, implying -22.6% from the current price of $313. The bear case scenario is $354 and the bull case is $741.
02What is the NXPI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NXPI is $243 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $295 (-5.8% from today), and the low-end target is $188 (-40.0%). The base case model target is $563.
03Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) stock overvalued in 2026?
NXPI trades at 21.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NXPI in 2026 are: (1) Automotive demand sensitivity — Investors remain cautious about NXP's exposure to automotive demand trends, which could impact recovery and growth in 2026. (2) Mixed financial performance — NXP reported mixed results with Q4 sales growth but a full-year decline in sales and net income, raising concerns about consistent profitability. (3) Guidance uncertainty — Fresh Q1 2026 guidance introduces uncertainty, as the market evaluates management's confidence in execution amid macroeconomic headwinds. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NXPI will report consensus revenue of $13.5B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.85 (+22.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.9B in revenue.
06When does NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) report its next earnings?
NXP Semiconductors N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-27. Consensus expects EPS of $3.52 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, NXPI has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NXP Semiconductors N.V. generate?
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) generated $3.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.4%. NXPI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($899M TTM).