MODEL VERDICT
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $227.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $232.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $244.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $236.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $241.15 | Pending | -5.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $455.42 | +100.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $442.72 | +95.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $358.64 | +58.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $478.76 | +110.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $566.60 | +149.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $429.71 | +89.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $1638.19 | +621.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $356.75 | +57.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $377.37 | +66.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $375.50 | +65.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $489.28 | +115.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $521.57 | +129.8% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (45%) | $289 | $312 | $335 | $358 | $381 |
| Conservative (74%) | $345 | $373 | $400 | $428 | $456 |
| Base Case (113.3%) | $424 | $458 | $492 | $526 | $560 |
| Bull Case (153%) | $503 | $543 | $583 | $624 | $664 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 164.54 | 27.30 | 14.98 | 883.39 | 320.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.95 | 20.96 | 13.00 | 139.02 | 45.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.54 | 15.49 | 9.76 | 20.97 | 3.53 |
| P/FCF | 23.09 | 23.02 | 15.64 | 29.27 | 4.25 |
| P/FFO | 16.96 | 15.89 | 10.34 | 22.12 | 3.90 |
| P/AFFO | 22.76 | 21.89 | 14.85 | 29.73 | 5.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.85 | 5.39 | 3.77 | 9.27 | 1.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.49 | 4.50 | 3.16 | 5.68 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXPI's fair value at $521.57 vs the current price of $227.01, implying +129.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $521.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $344.66 (P10) to $703.14 (P90), with a median of $470.21.
NXPI's current P/E of 28.6x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -36.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 164.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover NXPI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $250.00 (range: $215.00 — $280.00), implying +10.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NXPI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 62270.0% to approximately $1641. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.