Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$67.00
→
Intrinsic$149.89
+124%
$100.41$149.89$248.21
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests O could have 124% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $67, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $100 → Bull $248. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $190 | $205 | $222 | $239 |
| 10% | $129 | $139 | $150 | $161 |
| 12% | $97 | $104 | $112 | $120 |
| 14% | $77 | $83 | $89 | $95 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($248) offers 270% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($100) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$4.41B
Year 2$5.52B
Year 3$6.90B
Year 4$8.62B
Year 5$10.78B
Terminal$170.75B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$3.53BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.