MODEL VERDICT
Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $75.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $75.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $72.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $67.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $159.25 | +110.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $54.55 | -28.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $45.31 | -40.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $150.31 | +98.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $27.87 | -63.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $152.00 | +100.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $122.04 | +61.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $112.84 | +48.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $45.96 | -39.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $144.16 | +90.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $235.80 | +211.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Conservative (7%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $69 | $76 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $71 | $79 | $86 | $94 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 248.43 | 116.27 | 15.01 | 1076.60 | 378.48 |
| P/TBV | 43.07 | 44.52 | 9.56 | 91.77 | 28.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.92 | 2.36 | 1.71 | 73.53 | 28.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.66 | 7.70 | 4.65 | 50.86 | 18.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates OKTA's fair value at $235.80 vs the current price of $75.78, implying +211.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $235.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $85.71 (P10) to $358.90 (P90), with a median of $180.54.
OKTA's current P/E of 57.8x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +67.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover OKTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $101.81 (range: $60.00 — $134.00), implying +34.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OKTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.