MODEL VERDICT
CyberArk Software Ltd. (CYBR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $408.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $408.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $408.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $408.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $456.73 | Below threshold | -10.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $78.85 | -80.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $75.70 | -81.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $71.10 | -82.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $74.94 | -81.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $75.31 | -81.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $78.84 | -80.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $142.95 | -65.0% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 438.12 | 291.77 | 39.58 | 983.01 | 488.44 |
| P/FCF | 96.18 | 86.35 | 33.67 | 178.03 | 49.70 |
| P/TBV | 18.68 | 11.74 | 8.51 | 45.57 | 13.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.62 | 8.83 | 6.21 | 11.52 | 1.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.82 | 13.44 | 8.89 | 16.45 | 2.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates CYBR's fair value at $142.95 vs the current price of $408.85, implying -65.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $142.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $92.34 (P10) to $188.84 (P90), with a median of $140.01.
CYBR's current P/E of -139.5x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -707.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
49 analysts cover CYBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $466.17 (range: $411.00 — $502.00), implying +14.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (42), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CYBR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.