MODEL VERDICT
Optimum Communications, Inc. (OPTU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.13 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $1.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.67 | Pending | -9.0% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.64 | Pending | -19.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.21 | 27.08 | 7.56 | 130.19 | 50.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.58 | 15.46 | 13.24 | 25.21 | 4.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.67 | 7.90 | 7.35 | 11.62 | 1.63 |
| P/FCF | 8.32 | 8.47 | 4.61 | 12.16 | 3.32 |
| P/FFO | 3.60 | 1.86 | 0.72 | 8.77 | 3.62 |
| P/AFFO | 17.26 | 14.46 | 4.84 | 38.12 | 11.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 2.23 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPTU's fair value at $5.00 vs the current price of $1.13, implying +342.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (7,449 iterations) gives a range of $0.32 (P10) to $4.75 (P90), with a median of $1.69.
OPTU's current P/E of -0.3x compares to the industry median of 8.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -103.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover OPTU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $1.56 (range: $1.00 — $2.25), implying +38.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OPTU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.