MODEL VERDICT
Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $90.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $88.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $88.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $85.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $90.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $141.92 | +56.3% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $126.23 | +39.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $61.92 | -31.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $93.86 | +3.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $41.98 | -53.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $147.19 | +62.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $436.77 | +381.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $74.97 | -17.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $141.92 | +56.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.51 | +29.4% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $71 | $86 | $100 | $114 | $129 |
| Conservative (15%) | $75 | $90 | $105 | $120 | $135 |
| Base Case (22.9%) | $80 | $97 | $113 | $129 | $145 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $86 | $103 | $120 | $137 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.59 | 12.34 | 8.66 | 23.64 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.24 | 11.92 | 8.07 | 20.24 | 4.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.66 | 8.93 | 6.57 | 12.89 | 2.22 |
| P/FCF | 31.95 | 33.02 | 11.28 | 50.27 | 13.91 |
| P/FFO | 9.32 | 9.11 | 6.53 | 12.42 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 2.36 | 2.12 | 1.87 | 3.16 | 0.49 |
| P/AFFO | 34.22 | 32.13 | 11.97 | 61.97 | 17.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.26 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 3.01 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.28 | 2.33 | 1.69 | 2.65 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates OTTR's fair value at $117.51 vs the current price of $90.78, implying +29.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $91.24 (P10) to $108.26 (P90), with a median of $99.71.
OTTR's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -36.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover OTTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $81.00 (range: $81.00 — $81.00), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OTTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1460.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.