Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
Valuation Overview•Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 60/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
PARR demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | -6.4% | +0.6% | +19.0% | +13.7% | |
| EBITDA | $97.9M | — | +8.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $54.5M | +1208.5% | +0.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.10 | +1313.6% | +5.6% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$83.8M | +672.7% | -9.5% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 19.5% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 10.8% |
| Operating Margin | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Net Margin | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| FCF Margin | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.99 | $0.78 | -21.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.21 | $1.17 | -3.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.98 | $5.95 | +200.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.74 | $1.54 | +108.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.77 | $-0.94 | -22.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.15 | $-0.79 | -426.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.12 | $-0.10 | +16.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.13 | $0.49 | +276.9% |
Total return is +85.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +60.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +42.1% | +32.8% | — |
| 1Y | +85.8% | +60.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +28.9% | +9.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +27.3% | +14.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +12.5% | -1.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) valuation, health, and returns.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $59.50)
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $59.50 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $183.64 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $67.60 (implying +32.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 60/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.9 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 15.1%.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 5.0% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -10.4% in the last 12 months.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -6.4% 1Y revenue growth and +1313.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +0.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 17 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +32.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. include: -26.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.38x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.