MODEL VERDICT
Patria Investments Limited (PAX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $12.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $13.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $13.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $12.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $12.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $17.07 | +34.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $10.94 | -13.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $17.32 | +36.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $23.03 | +81.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.25 | +20.2% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (2.8%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.73 | 22.11 | 18.00 | 29.43 | 4.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.48 | 19.57 | 17.91 | 20.57 | 1.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.11 | 13.46 | 9.93 | 20.03 | 3.81 |
| P/FCF | 19.42 | 18.56 | 12.98 | 27.59 | 6.33 |
| P/FFO | 16.80 | 16.69 | 15.85 | 17.96 | 0.88 |
| P/TBV | 32.67 | 20.12 | 10.73 | 67.17 | 30.24 |
| P/AFFO | 17.45 | 17.09 | 16.51 | 19.09 | 1.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.98 | 3.93 | 3.64 | 4.42 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.13 | 7.04 | 4.77 | 9.35 | 1.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAX's fair value at $15.25 vs the current price of $12.69, implying +20.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.66 (P10) to $17.90 (P90), with a median of $15.57.
PAX's current P/E of 23.5x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -25.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.7x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover PAX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PAX trades at the 7110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (38.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6600.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.