Patria Investments Ltd (PAX)
Valuation Overview•Is Patria Investments Ltd Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 77/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Confirm your valuation thesis with live pattern overlays, key pivot levels, and AI trade plans.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
PAX exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (14.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 31.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $102.9M | +5.8% | +14.3% | +27.4% | — | |
| EBITDA | $29.8M | — | -4.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $10.5M | +19.1% | -2.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.07 | +14.9% | -5.0% | +2.8% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | +87.6% | +51.5% | +37.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 88.9% | 90.3% | 90.2% | 83.5% |
| Operating Margin | 31.1% | 42.9% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| Net Margin | 16.0% | 25.9% | 33.1% | 38.5% |
| FCF Margin | 25.9% | 49.1% | 44.2% | 42.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.28 | $0.32 | +12.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.28 | $0.27 | -3.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.47 | $0.50 | +6.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.26 | $0.30 | +15.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.30 | $0.24 | -20.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.25 | $0.23 | -8.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.36 | $0.58 | +61.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.24 | $0.23 | -4.2% |
Total return is -28.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -44.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -32.7% | -45.1% | — |
| 1Y | -28.9% | -44.7% | +4.1% |
| 3YCAGR | -5.7% | -26.2% | +14.5% |
| 5YCAGR | -3.9% | -14.7% | +22.0% |
| 10YCAGR | -3.1% | -16.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) valuation, health, and returns.
Patria Investments Ltd is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $8.70)
Patria Investments Ltd has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $8.70 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $12.20 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.00 (implying +36.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Patria Investments Ltd displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 77/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.5%.
Patria Investments Ltd pays a 5.9% dividend yield, covered by a 111% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.4% buyback yield.
Patria Investments Ltd's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.8% 1Y revenue growth and +14.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +14.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +36.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Patria Investments Ltd include: -43.1% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.13x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.