MODEL VERDICT
Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $5.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $3.98 | -21.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $5.62 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $8.32 | +65.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $8.35 | +65.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $4.84 | -4.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $8.63 | +71.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $7.35 | +45.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $8.54 | +69.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $11.91 | +136.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $8.13 | +61.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.60 | +50.9% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.89 | 29.58 | 21.71 | 32.39 | 5.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.33 | 19.87 | 11.11 | 118.46 | 51.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.69 | 13.18 | 9.32 | 21.57 | 6.26 |
| P/FCF | 24.09 | 25.80 | 10.25 | 34.53 | 11.81 |
| P/FFO | 21.76 | 20.17 | 15.25 | 29.86 | 7.43 |
| P/TBV | 5.18 | 5.06 | 3.60 | 7.12 | 1.47 |
| P/AFFO | 24.56 | 22.89 | 18.91 | 31.87 | 6.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.29 | 4.42 | 3.01 | 143.42 | 56.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.52 | 3.50 | 2.01 | 10.08 | 3.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAYO's fair value at $7.60 vs the current price of $5.04, implying +50.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.23 (P10) to $9.64 (P90), with a median of $7.85.
PAYO's current P/E of 26.5x compares to the industry median of 43.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -39.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover PAYO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.50 (range: $7.00 — $8.00), implying +48.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAYO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (1.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8450.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.