MODEL VERDICT
Pioneer Bancorp, Inc. (PBFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $14.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $11.40 | -20.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $14.40 | +0.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $15.08 | +5.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $11.40 | -20.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.13 | +26.4% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (19%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (29.3%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.01 | 23.55 | 11.51 | 263.26 | 90.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.68 | 7.16 | 3.72 | 18.16 | 7.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.15 | 6.49 | 3.39 | 12.23 | 3.69 |
| P/FCF | 130.45 | 10.51 | 5.82 | 821.09 | 304.83 |
| P/FFO | 26.53 | 16.89 | 10.22 | 72.13 | 21.30 |
| P/TBV | 1.19 | 1.23 | 0.98 | 1.51 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 30.82 | 21.82 | 10.41 | 85.01 | 25.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 1.39 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.68 | 3.82 | 2.49 | 4.95 | 0.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBFS's fair value at $18.13 vs the current price of $14.34, implying +26.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.04 (P10) to $32.99 (P90), with a median of $18.74.
PBFS's current P/E of 18.9x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +25.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.0x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for PBFS.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PBFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10660.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.