MODEL VERDICT
Preferred Bank (PFBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $95.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $93.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $95.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $94.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $93.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $140.06 | +46.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $65.80 | -31.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $70.97 | -25.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $112.06 | +17.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $140.05 | +46.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $116.59 | +22.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.57 | +11.6% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $56 | $78 | $100 | $123 | $145 |
| Conservative (11%) | $58 | $81 | $104 | $128 | $151 |
| Base Case (17.5%) | $61 | $86 | $110 | $135 | $159 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $64 | $90 | $116 | $142 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.61 | 9.07 | 6.94 | 11.65 | 1.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.76 | 2.94 | 1.34 | 4.72 | 1.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.73 | 2.91 | 1.31 | 4.67 | 1.35 |
| P/FCF | 7.95 | 7.35 | 6.02 | 11.22 | 1.68 |
| P/FFO | 9.42 | 8.95 | 6.87 | 11.35 | 1.61 |
| P/TBV | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.93 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 9.64 | 9.04 | 6.98 | 12.29 | 1.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.93 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.24 | 3.41 | 2.16 | 4.88 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PFBC's fair value at $106.57 vs the current price of $95.47, implying +11.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.24 (P10) to $111.72 (P90), with a median of $105.21.
PFBC's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -31.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover PFBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $102.00 (range: $93.00 — $111.00), implying +6.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PFBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3080.0% to approximately $125. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.