Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)
Valuation Overview•Is Performance Food Group Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 38/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
PFGC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (43.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (1.2%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.3B | +8.6% | +7.5% | +20.3% | +15.3% | |
| EBITDA | -$246.4M | — | +24.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $41.7M | -22.0% | +44.6% | — | +19.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.27 | -21.9% | +43.4% | — | +13.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $542.3M | -8.2% | +126.0% | +8.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% |
| Operating Margin | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Net Margin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| FCF Margin | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.78 | $0.80 | +3.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.07 | $0.98 | -8.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.21 | $1.18 | -2.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.46 | $1.55 | +6.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.87 | $0.79 | -9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.04 | $0.98 | -5.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.22 | $1.16 | -4.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.37 | $1.45 | +5.8% |
Total return is +21.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -3.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +17.7% | +8.4% | — |
| 1Y | +21.9% | -3.1% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +23.6% | +4.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +17.1% | +4.6% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +15.0% | +1.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) valuation, health, and returns.
Performance Food Group Company is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +39.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $144.86)
Performance Food Group Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $144.86 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $73.04 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $117.25 (implying +13.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Performance Food Group Company displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 38/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.7%.
Performance Food Group Company does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Performance Food Group Company's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +8.6% 1Y revenue growth and -21.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 25 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +13.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Performance Food Group Company include: -25.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.47x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.