Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)
Valuation Overview•Is Performance Food Group Co Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
PFGC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (5.8% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (1.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.0B | +7.2% | +5.8% | +17.4% | +15.5% | |
| EBITDA | $537.4M | — | +10.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $162.3M | +5.6% | -3.3% | — | +18.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.03 | +5.0% | -3.4% | +49.2% | +12.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $223.6M | +46.2% | +22.3% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% |
| Operating Margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Net Margin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| FCF Margin | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $1.60 | $1.59 | -0.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.78 | $0.80 | +3.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.07 | $0.98 | -8.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.16 | $1.18 | +1.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.46 | $1.55 | +6.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.87 | $0.79 | -9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.04 | $0.98 | -5.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.22 | $1.16 | -4.9% |
Total return is -13.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -28.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +3.1% | -9.3% | — |
| 1Y | -13.1% | -28.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +14.5% | -5.7% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +13.7% | +3.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +13.8% | +0.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) valuation, health, and returns.
Performance Food Group Co is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +66.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $153.10)
Performance Food Group Co has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $153.10 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $102.06 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $127.33 (implying +40.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Performance Food Group Co displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.1 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.3%.
Performance Food Group Co does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Performance Food Group Co's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +7.2% 1Y revenue growth and +5.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +5.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 26 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +40.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Performance Food Group Co include: -25.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.38x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.