MODEL VERDICT
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $88.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $93.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $88.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $89.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $93.34 | +5.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $156.26 | +76.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $73.68 | -16.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $100.70 | +13.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $68.76 | -22.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $72.65 | -18.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $330.85 | +273.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $302.04 | +240.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $66.73 | -24.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $97.82 | +10.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $127.14 | +43.4% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $79 | $86 | $93 | $100 | $107 |
| Conservative (7%) | $81 | $88 | $95 | $102 | $109 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $84 | $91 | $98 | $106 | $113 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $87 | $94 | $101 | $109 | $116 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.68 | 36.81 | 27.22 | 148.03 | 47.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.41 | 25.36 | 20.38 | 43.99 | 9.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.22 | 15.40 | 12.30 | 45.00 | 11.52 |
| P/FCF | 40.52 | 19.58 | 11.55 | 144.83 | 51.46 |
| P/FFO | 17.16 | 15.36 | 12.08 | 33.17 | 7.26 |
| P/TBV | 19.95 | 17.88 | 16.02 | 25.94 | 5.27 |
| P/AFFO | 204.58 | 25.47 | 17.29 | 1280.94 | 474.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.09 | 2.91 | 2.68 | 4.17 | 0.52 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PFGC's fair value at $127.14 vs the current price of $88.69, implying +43.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $127.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.38 (P10) to $155.65 (P90), with a median of $126.36.
PFGC's current P/E of 40.7x compares to the industry median of 33.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +20.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.7x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
25 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $111.75 (range: $105.00 — $123.00), implying +26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PFGC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 890.0% to approximately $97. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.