MODEL VERDICT
PJT Partners Inc. (PJT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $151.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $154.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $161.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $179.53 | Below threshold | -9.7% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $169.83 | Below threshold | -4.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $122.48 | -19.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 45 industry peers | $72.94 | -51.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $77.61 | -48.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 24 industry peers | $38.16 | -74.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $131.46 | -13.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 36 analyst estimates | $126.54 | -16.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $98.52 | -35.0% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $150 | $161 | $172 | $183 | $195 |
| Conservative (21%) | $161 | $173 | $185 | $197 | $208 |
| Base Case (32.4%) | $176 | $189 | $202 | $215 | $228 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $191 | $205 | $219 | $233 | $247 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.75 | 20.99 | 17.10 | 37.30 | 8.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.14 | 12.61 | 8.32 | 22.55 | 4.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.40 | 11.02 | 7.20 | 20.60 | 4.42 |
| P/FCF | 10.72 | 8.12 | 5.58 | 26.67 | 7.46 |
| P/FFO | 23.99 | 22.24 | 15.48 | 42.69 | 8.86 |
| P/TBV | 5.43 | 4.04 | 3.12 | 9.99 | 2.58 |
| P/AFFO | 25.92 | 23.31 | 15.91 | 43.57 | 9.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.86 | 3.17 | 1.93 | 7.72 | 2.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.63 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 4.66 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PJT's fair value at $98.52 vs the current price of $151.63, implying -35.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $98.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $80.84 (P10) to $115.14 (P90), with a median of $97.52.
PJT's current P/E of 30.8x compares to the industry median of 24.9x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +23.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
12 analysts cover PJT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $171.00 (range: $150.00 — $180.00), implying +12.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PJT trades at the 5790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PJT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 500.0% to approximately $159. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.