MODEL VERDICT
Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. (PLYM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $21.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $31.12 | +41.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $29.52 | +34.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $25.27 | +15.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $85.91 | +290.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $36.45 | +65.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $33.87 | +54.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.67 | +44.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $16 | $22 | $29 | $35 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $16 | $23 | $30 | $36 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $17 | $24 | $31 | $37 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $18 | $25 | $32 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 145.67 | 140.65 | 7.86 | 351.64 | 124.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.10 | 11.85 | 7.10 | 20.65 | 5.26 |
| P/FCF | 11.56 | 8.35 | 5.52 | 30.31 | 8.67 |
| P/FFO | 7.55 | 6.14 | 1.93 | 17.78 | 5.44 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 1.47 | 0.71 | 2.40 | 0.69 |
| P/AFFO | 13.00 | 4.20 | 2.19 | 32.62 | 17.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.27 | 1.37 | 0.49 | 2.15 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.76 | 4.04 | 1.24 | 7.03 | 2.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLYM's fair value at $31.67 vs the current price of $21.98, implying +44.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.21 (P10) to $49.55 (P90), with a median of $34.74.
PLYM's current P/E of 7.1x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -74.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover PLYM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying +0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PLYM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.