MODEL VERDICT
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $151.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $152.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $146.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $141.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $139.20 | Below threshold | +0.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $84.60 | -44.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $198.40 | +31.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $124.91 | -17.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $108.44 | -28.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $159.67 | +5.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $108.60 | -28.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $122.60 | -18.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.89 | +6.5% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $127 | $140 | $152 | $164 | $177 |
| Conservative (5%) | $131 | $144 | $157 | $169 | $182 |
| Base Case (4.5%) | $131 | $143 | $156 | $168 | $181 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $132 | $145 | $158 | $171 | $184 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.91 | 32.60 | 22.96 | 37.12 | 4.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.30 | 30.05 | 26.25 | 43.65 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.30 | 22.91 | 20.27 | 31.09 | 3.63 |
| P/FCF | 20.75 | 19.57 | 16.95 | 33.46 | 5.77 |
| P/FFO | 21.59 | 20.81 | 18.15 | 29.68 | 3.85 |
| P/TBV | 4.69 | 5.17 | 1.80 | 8.42 | 2.23 |
| P/AFFO | 21.82 | 21.07 | 18.52 | 29.78 | 3.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.54 | 4.93 | 1.76 | 8.39 | 2.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.71 | 10.61 | 9.48 | 19.72 | 3.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXR's fair value at $160.89 vs the current price of $151.03, implying +6.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $145.97 (P10) to $187.39 (P90), with a median of $165.30.
EXR's current P/E of 37.5x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +39.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover EXR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $150.00 (range: $143.00 — $164.00), implying -0.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EXR trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 910.0% to approximately $165. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.