MODEL VERDICT
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $142.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $142.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $145.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $141.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $138.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $134.38 | -5.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 7 REIT peers | $157.79 | +11.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $119.63 | -15.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $157.19 | +10.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $178.67 | +25.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $157.74 | +11.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $155.79 | +9.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $134.77 | -5.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $157.53 | +10.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.83 | +9.0% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $126 | $136 | $145 | $154 | $164 |
| Conservative (5%) | $130 | $140 | $149 | $159 | $169 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $129 | $139 | $148 | $158 | $168 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $131 | $141 | $151 | $160 | $170 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.82 | 32.60 | 22.96 | 37.12 | 4.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.89 | 30.05 | 24.96 | 43.65 | 6.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.16 | 22.91 | 19.25 | 31.09 | 3.79 |
| P/FCF | 20.35 | 19.57 | 15.08 | 33.46 | 6.09 |
| P/FFO | 21.16 | 20.81 | 16.33 | 29.68 | 4.28 |
| P/TBV | 4.32 | 5.17 | 1.80 | 8.42 | 2.46 |
| P/AFFO | 21.40 | 21.07 | 16.54 | 29.78 | 4.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.19 | 4.93 | 1.76 | 8.39 | 2.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.45 | 10.61 | 8.17 | 19.72 | 3.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXR's fair value at $154.83 vs the current price of $142.06, implying +9.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $145.82 (P10) to $176.73 (P90), with a median of $161.26.
EXR's current P/E of 30.9x compares to the industry median of 34.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -9.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
28 analysts cover EXR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $149.13 (range: $140.00 — $164.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2910.0% to approximately $183. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.