MODEL VERDICT
Primerica, Inc. (PRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $276.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $279.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $272.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $273.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $261.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $185.18 | -33.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $83.80 | -69.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $193.30 | -30.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $157.64 | -43.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $185.18 | -33.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $95.66 | -65.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $69.23 | -75.0% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $206.10 | -25.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $176.64 | -36.2% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $228 | $256 | $285 | $313 | $342 |
| Conservative (6%) | $233 | $262 | $292 | $321 | $350 |
| Base Case (9.7%) | $241 | $271 | $301 | $331 | $361 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $248 | $279 | $310 | $341 | $372 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.70 | 13.99 | 11.50 | 19.80 | 2.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.30 | 11.07 | 3.34 | 13.60 | 3.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.57 | 11.47 | 9.30 | 13.89 | 1.43 |
| P/FCF | 9.91 | 9.61 | 7.38 | 12.01 | 1.63 |
| P/FFO | 13.44 | 12.77 | 10.68 | 18.79 | 2.62 |
| P/TBV | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.01 | 4.20 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 14.24 | 13.31 | 11.25 | 19.98 | 2.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.21 | 2.94 | 2.66 | 4.11 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.48 | 2.43 | 2.03 | 3.00 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRI's fair value at $176.64 vs the current price of $276.96, implying -36.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $176.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $163.84 (P10) to $197.08 (P90), with a median of $180.11.
PRI's current P/E of 20.2x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +49.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover PRI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $292.00 (range: $292.00 — $292.00), implying +5.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.4% is 5.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.1%), with a Z-score of +2.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$154. (2) Multiple compression: PRI trades at the 9440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4440.0% to approximately $154. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.