MODEL VERDICT
Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $24.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $23.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $24.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $22.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $10.75 | -56.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $18.34 | -26.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $10.23 | -58.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $24.53 | -1.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $9.58 | -61.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $30.52 | +22.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $76.91 | +209.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $75.02 | +201.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $5.58 | -77.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $24.94 | +0.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.78 | +3.7% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 116× | 127× | 138× (Current) | 149× | 160× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (-9.7%) | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 143.55 | 131.72 | 121.21 | 177.73 | 30.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 104.05 | 116.02 | 75.53 | 120.60 | 24.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 77.15 | 81.25 | 58.58 | 91.62 | 16.89 |
| P/FCF | 36.51 | 35.59 | 18.84 | 53.38 | 15.66 |
| P/FFO | 101.16 | 96.97 | 93.10 | 113.41 | 10.79 |
| P/TBV | 8.03 | 7.95 | 5.68 | 10.63 | 1.78 |
| P/AFFO | 113.88 | 97.34 | 96.63 | 147.65 | 29.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.64 | 4.73 | 3.59 | 6.20 | 1.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 1.73 | 1.41 | 2.89 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRVA's fair value at $25.78 vs the current price of $24.85, implying +3.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.34 (P10) to $30.15 (P90), with a median of $25.08.
PRVA's current P/E of 138.1x compares to the industry median of 56.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +142.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 143.6x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover PRVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.67 (range: $26.00 — $36.00), implying +27.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRVA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.