MODEL VERDICT
Radian Group Inc. (RDN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $35.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $35.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $35.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $34.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $34.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $41.18 | +16.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $35.50 | +0.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $43.73 | +23.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $32.56 | -8.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $41.05 | +15.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $47.87 | +35.1% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $12.50 | -64.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $23.25 | -34.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.09 | -1.0% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $28 | $36 | $44 | $52 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $29 | $37 | $45 | $54 |
| Base Case (4.1%) | $20 | $29 | $37 | $45 | $53 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $21 | $29 | $37 | $46 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.23 | 7.57 | 4.38 | 10.13 | 1.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.05 | 6.87 | 4.60 | 9.95 | 1.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.07 | 6.75 | 4.63 | 9.94 | 1.71 |
| P/FCF | 7.45 | 7.66 | 5.49 | 8.91 | 1.38 |
| P/FFO | 6.38 | 6.61 | 3.97 | 8.56 | 1.48 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 1.32 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 6.55 | 6.77 | 4.06 | 8.88 | 1.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 1.02 | 0.83 | 1.31 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.18 | 3.02 | 2.73 | 3.79 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates RDN's fair value at $35.09 vs the current price of $35.43, implying -1.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.77 (P10) to $39.58 (P90), with a median of $36.58.
RDN's current P/E of 9.0x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -14.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
22 analysts cover RDN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying +12.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RDN trades at the 2000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RDN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (46.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1930.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.