Upside case
Bull case
$360+51.8%
RGLD would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering RGLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$305
+28.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $360
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.4B
RGLD price targets
Three scenarios for where RGLD stock could go
Current
~$237
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $237
Base
$384
Bull
$360
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$384+62.3%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Royal Gold, Inc.
RGLD · NASDAQBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Royal Gold is a precious metals streaming and royalty company that provides upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for future metal production at fixed prices. It generates revenue primarily through gold and silver streams — representing roughly 80% of revenue — and mineral royalties from a diversified portfolio of 185 properties worldwide. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost, capital-light business model that provides exposure to metal price upside without operational risk, coupled with a diversified portfolio across geographies and commodities.
Market Cap
$16.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$634M
Net Margin
48.5%
RGLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.51/$1.43
Revenue
$193M/$182M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.70
Revenue
$210M/$214M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.06/$2.15
Revenue
$252M/$254M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.92/$2.59
Revenue
$375M/$392M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.51/$1.43 | +5.6% | $193M/$182M | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.81/$1.70 | +6.5% | $210M/$214M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.06/$2.15 | -4.2% | $252M/$254M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.92/$2.59 | -25.9% | $375M/$392M | -4.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.5B
+41.2% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
+25.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.91
+54.2% YoY
FY2
$10.86
+21.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$244M
FCF Margin: -18.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.91
Expected Revenue
$476M
RGLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RGLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $344M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Royalty Interest
100.0%
+45.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Royalty Interest is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 45.7% YoY.
RGLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $169 — implies -26.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RGLD
35.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+40% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
RGLD
35.4x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+55% premium
vs RGLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.4x
vs
5Y Average
29.8x
+19% premium
Forward PE
19.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+4%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+40%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+55%
5Y Avg
29.8x
+19%
PEG Ratio
4.55x
S&P 500
1.75x
+161%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+274%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+34%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+79%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+26%
Price/FCF
23.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+9%
Basic Materials
27.5x
-15%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+3%
Price/Sales
16.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+409%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+712%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+26%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
S&P 500
1.88%
-62%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-47%
5Y Avg
1.12%
-36%
| Metric | RGLD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg RGLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.9x | 19.1x | 15.4x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.4x | 25.2x+40% | 22.9x+55% | 29.8x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.55x | 1.75x+161% | 1.22x+274% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.4x | 15.3x+34% | 11.4x+79% | 16.2x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 23.3x | 21.3x | 27.5x-15% | 22.6x |
| Price/Sales | 16.0x | 3.1x+409% | 2.0x+712% | 12.7x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.72% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 1.12% |
RGLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRGLD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for RGLD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+72.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
64.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
48.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$244M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-18.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$234M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$732M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
69M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRGLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Royal Gold's revenue is heavily dependent on the market prices of gold, silver, and copper. A significant decline in these metal prices can adversely affect the company's revenue and cash flow, particularly for gold, which accounts for the majority of their revenue.
High Risk
Operator Decisions and Project Performance
The operators of the mines where Royal Gold holds stream or royalty interests can make decisions that negatively impact Royal Gold's interests. Issues at specific projects, such as silver recovery problems at the Pueblo Viejo project, can hinder revenue generation.
High Risk
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks
Royal Gold has exposure to assets in jurisdictions that may carry higher geopolitical and regulatory risks. Permitting risks, political instability, and environmental challenges associated with large-scale mining are significant concerns.
Medium
Dependence on Counterparties
As a streaming and royalty company, Royal Gold relies on the performance and long-term viability of the mining companies that operate the underlying assets. They must continually secure new agreements to offset production declines and contract expirations.
Medium
Market and Share Price Volatility
Factors unrelated to Royal Gold's operational performance can cause volatility in its stock price, including broader market conditions and economic factors. There's also a risk of dilution if the company issues additional equity securities.
Medium
Execution Risk and Growth
While Royal Gold has a strong earnings base, there are concerns about the sustainability of its recent performance. The company's growth strategy, including recent acquisitions, carries execution risk.
Lower
Free Cash Flow and Profit Quality
Royal Gold has reported negative free cash flow in some periods despite strong net profits, raising questions about profit quality and the conversion of profit to cash.
Lower
Concentration of Revenue
A significant portion of Royal Gold's revenue can be concentrated in a small number of large, long-life assets. Adverse developments at these key properties could have a substantial impact on the company's results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RGLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Growth
Royal Gold has made significant acquisitions, including Sandstorm Gold and the Kansanshi stream, which have expanded its asset base and extended portfolio duration. These deals are expected to drive future growth in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) and enhance revenue.
Financial Strength and Free Cash Flow
In 2025, Royal Gold reported record revenue of $1.02 billion, a 43.36% increase from the previous year, with earnings also rising significantly. The company's scale allows for a high conversion of revenue into free cash flow, supporting growth initiatives while maintaining a conservative balance sheet.
Operational Improvements and Future Catalysts
The ramping expansion at the Pueblo Viejo site and anticipated increases in silver recoveries in late 2025 are expected to enhance revenue generation. Additionally, there is potential hidden value in deferred silver ounces at Pueblo Viejo.
Record Gold Prices and Market Conditions
The current environment of record gold prices enhances the economics of Royal Gold's assets and acquisitions. The company's diversified portfolio across key mining regions provides a stable revenue stream.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RGLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$236.88
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.75
+57.1% from the low
52-Week High
$306.25
-22.7% from the high
1 Month
-9.10%
3 Month
-10.87%
YTD
+7.1%
1 Year
+28.4%
3Y CAGR
+18.8%
5Y CAGR
+14.7%
10Y CAGR
+14.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RGLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.9x
vs 18.9x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+41.2%
vs +37.5% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
48.5%
vs 61.1% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $16.4B | 19.9x | +41.2% | 48.5% | Buy | +28.7% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $61.1B | 24.8x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +13.3% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $45.2B | 27.1x | +37.5% | 61.1% | Hold | +17.4% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $7.3B | 18.9x | +58.0% | 74.3% | Buy | +14.9% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $95.1B | 13.6x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +25.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RGLD Dividend and Capital Return
RGLD returns 0.8% total yield, led by a 0.75% dividend, raised 24 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.75%
Payout Ratio
25.4%
How RGLD Splits Its Return
Div 0.75%
Dividend 0.75%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
24Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
69M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.80 | +12.5% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | +6.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2023 | $1.50 | +7.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +16.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsRGLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $305, implying +28.7% from the current price of $237.
02What is the RGLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RGLD is $305 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $335 (+41.4% from today), and the low-end target is $264 (+11.4%). The base case model target is $384.
03Is Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
RGLD trades at 19.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RGLD in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Royal Gold's revenue is heavily dependent on the market prices of gold, silver, and copper. (2) Operator Decisions and Project Performance — The operators of the mines where Royal Gold holds stream or royalty interests can make decisions that negatively impact Royal Gold's interests. (3) Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks — Royal Gold has exposure to assets in jurisdictions that may carry higher geopolitical and regulatory risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Royal Gold, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RGLD will report consensus revenue of $1.5B (+41.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.91 (+54.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) report its next earnings?
Royal Gold, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.91 and revenue of $476M. Over recent quarters, RGLD has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Royal Gold, Inc. generate?
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) had a free cash outflow of $244M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.7%. RGLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).