Upside case
Bull case
$289+34.7%
RGLD would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering RGLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$330
+53.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$138 – $289
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.9B
RGLD price targets
Three scenarios for where RGLD stock could go
Current
~$215
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $215
Bear
$138
Base
$220
Bull
$289
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$220+2.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RGLD — at roughly 19x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$138-35.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push RGLD down roughly 36% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Royal Gold, Inc.
RGLD · NASDAQBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Royal Gold is a precious metals streaming and royalty company that provides upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for future metal production at fixed prices. It generates revenue primarily through gold and silver streams — representing roughly 80% of revenue — and mineral royalties from a diversified portfolio of 185 properties worldwide. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost, capital-light business model that provides exposure to metal price upside without operational risk, coupled with a diversified portfolio across geographies and commodities.
Market Cap
$14.9B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$634M
Net Margin
48.5%
RGLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.70
Revenue
$210M/$214M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.06/$2.15
Revenue
$252M/$254M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.92/$2.59
Revenue
$375M/$392M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.11/$2.77
Revenue
$469M/$472M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.81/$1.70 | +6.5% | $210M/$214M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.06/$2.15 | -4.2% | $252M/$254M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.92/$2.59 | -25.9% | $375M/$392M | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.11/$2.77 | +12.3% | $469M/$472M | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.5B
+13.6% YoY
FY2
$1.7B
+15.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.47
-13.3% YoY
FY2
$7.08
+9.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$244M
FCF Margin: -18.7%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.67
Expected Revenue
$463M
RGLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RGLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $344M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Royalty Interest
100.0%
+45.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Royalty Interest is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 45.7% YoY.
RGLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $279 — implies +30.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RGLD
32.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+31% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
RGLD
32.1x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+36% premium
vs RGLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.1x
vs
5Y Average
29.8x
+8% premium
Forward PE
18.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-0%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+31%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+36%
5Y Avg
29.8x
+8%
PEG Ratio
4.13x
S&P 500
1.66x
+149%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+236%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+22%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+69%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+14%
Price/FCF
21.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+2%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-27%
5Y Avg
22.6x
-6%
Price/Sales
14.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+368%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+669%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+14%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
S&P 500
1.91%
-59%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-44%
5Y Avg
1.12%
-29%
| Metric | RGLD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg RGLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.8x | 18.8x | 14.9x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.1x | 24.4x+31% | 23.6x+36% | 29.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.13x | 1.66x+149% | 1.23x+236% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.6x | 15.2x+22% | 11.0x+69% | 16.2x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 21.2x | 20.7x | 29.0x-27% | 22.6x |
| Price/Sales | 14.5x | 3.1x+368% | 1.9x+669% | 12.7x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.79% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.12% |
RGLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRGLD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for RGLD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+72.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
64.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
48.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$244M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-18.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$234M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$732M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
69M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRGLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation concerns
Despite being undervalued with a forward P/E of 16.08x, there is uncertainty around achieving the projected 63.80% upside.
High Risk
Production and cost risks
2026 guidance includes ambitious production targets (290,000-320,000 gold ounces, 3.0-3.5 million silver ounces) with potential cost pressures from DD&A of $339-$379 million.
Medium
Tax and financial volatility
Effective tax rate of 17-22% and reliance on debt reduction strategies introduce financial unpredictability.
High Risk
Commodity price exposure
Revenue heavily dependent on volatile gold, silver, and copper prices, with sales weighting skewed to second-half performance.
Medium
Portfolio concentration risk
Restructuring investments (e.g., Bear Creek Mining) to refine portfolio quality may expose the company to execution risks in new ventures.
Lower
Market sentiment shifts
Analyst optimism contrasts with broader market risks, creating potential for sentiment-driven volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RGLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Precious Metals Exposure
Royal Gold provides investors with exposure to precious metals while mitigating risks associated with traditional producers.
Strong Financial Reporting
The company has demonstrated consistent financial performance, as evidenced by its recent quarterly and annual results.
Industry Leadership
Royal Gold is recognized as a gold standard in precious metal investing, highlighting its strong market position.
Corporate Development
Active participation in industry forums and events underscores the company's commitment to growth and innovation.
Investor Confidence
Analyst positioning and smart-money flows indicate strong investor confidence in Royal Gold's fundamentals and valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RGLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$214.82
52W Range Position
41%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.75
+42.5% from the low
52-Week High
$306.25
-29.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.02%
3 Month
-11.42%
YTD
-2.8%
1 Year
+19.9%
3Y CAGR
+23.8%
5Y CAGR
+14.5%
10Y CAGR
+12.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RGLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.8x
vs 16.7x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.6%
vs +15.7% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
48.5%
vs 65.1% median
-25% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $14.9B | 18.8x | +13.6% | 48.5% | Buy | +53.6% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $42.3B | 24.4x | +14.3% | 65.1% | Buy | +36.4% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $6.5B | 16.7x | +12.5% | 78.1% | Buy | +46.3% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $83.5B | 12.2x | +15.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +48.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RGLD Dividend and Capital Return
RGLD returns 0.8% total yield, led by a 0.79% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
Payout Ratio
25.4%
How RGLD Splits Its Return
Div 0.79%
Dividend 0.79%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
69M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.80 | +12.5% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | +6.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2023 | $1.50 | +7.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +16.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsRGLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $330, implying +53.6% from the current price of $215. The bear case scenario is $138 and the bull case is $289.
02What is the RGLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RGLD is $330 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $335 (+55.9% from today), and the low-end target is $325 (+51.3%). The base case model target is $220.
03Is Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
RGLD trades at 18.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RGLD in 2026 are: (1) Production and cost risks — 2026 guidance includes ambitious production targets (290,000-320,000 gold ounces, 3. (2) Commodity price exposure — Revenue heavily dependent on volatile gold, silver, and copper prices, with sales weighting skewed to second-half performance. (3) Valuation concerns — Despite being undervalued with a forward P/E of 16. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Royal Gold, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RGLD will report consensus revenue of $1.5B (+13.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.47 (-13.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.7B in revenue.
06When does Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) report its next earnings?
Royal Gold, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $2.67 and revenue of $463M. Over recent quarters, RGLD has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Royal Gold, Inc. generate?
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) had a free cash outflow of $244M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.7%. RGLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).