MODEL VERDICT
Rh (RH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $129.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $137.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $140.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $129.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $125.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $91.47 | -29.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $54.48 | -58.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $62.00 | -52.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $33.19 | -74.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $135.25 | +4.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $67.17 | -48.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $114.13 | -12.2% | 100% | 56 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $111 | $122 | $133 | $144 | $155 |
| Conservative (5%) | $114 | $125 | $137 | $148 | $160 |
| Base Case (-16.8%) | $90 | $99 | $108 | $117 | $126 |
| Bull Case (-23%) | $84 | $92 | $101 | $109 | $118 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.75 | 24.22 | 13.43 | 108.73 | 32.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.62 | 19.93 | 15.80 | 36.45 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.77 | 16.32 | 9.63 | 26.01 | 6.19 |
| P/FCF | 27.54 | 30.85 | 19.41 | 34.98 | 6.86 |
| P/FFO | 20.78 | 19.46 | 9.96 | 38.84 | 10.69 |
| P/TBV | 27.36 | 17.44 | 12.47 | 52.16 | 21.62 |
| P/AFFO | 22.32 | 18.28 | 13.17 | 37.61 | 9.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 82.19 | 20.79 | 9.04 | 278.15 | 130.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.64 | 2.08 | 1.27 | 4.44 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates RH's fair value at $114.13 vs the current price of $129.97, implying -12.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $114.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.22 (P10) to $137.11 (P90), with a median of $106.28.
RH's current P/E of 35.9x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +109.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover RH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $208.00 (range: $160.00 — $283.00), implying +60.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 41430.0% to approximately $668. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.