MODEL VERDICT
Rh (RH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $165.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $207.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $205.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $210.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $219.00 | Below threshold | -5.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $147.95 | -10.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $110.44 | -33.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $105.91 | -36.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $82.99 | -49.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $79.79 | -51.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $234.92 | +41.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $105.91 | -36.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.07 | -15.5% | 100% | 59 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $140 | $155 | $170 | $185 | $199 |
| Conservative (5%) | $144 | $160 | $175 | $190 | $205 |
| Base Case (-16.8%) | $114 | $126 | $139 | $151 | $163 |
| Bull Case (-23%) | $106 | $118 | $129 | $140 | $151 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.75 | 24.22 | 13.43 | 108.73 | 32.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.62 | 19.93 | 15.80 | 36.45 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.77 | 16.32 | 9.63 | 26.01 | 6.19 |
| P/FCF | 27.54 | 30.85 | 19.41 | 34.98 | 6.86 |
| P/FFO | 20.78 | 19.46 | 9.96 | 38.84 | 10.69 |
| P/TBV | 27.36 | 17.44 | 12.47 | 52.16 | 21.62 |
| P/AFFO | 22.32 | 18.28 | 13.17 | 37.61 | 9.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 82.19 | 20.79 | 9.04 | 278.15 | 130.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.64 | 2.08 | 1.27 | 4.44 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates RH's fair value at $140.07 vs the current price of $165.71, implying -15.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $111.32 (P10) to $187.20 (P90), with a median of $148.01.
RH's current P/E of 45.8x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +56.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover RH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $212.67 (range: $165.00 — $283.00), implying +28.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RH trades at the 6940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (40.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 30340.0% to approximately $668. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.