MODEL VERDICT
Renasant Corporation (RNST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $39.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $39.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $40.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $39.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $39.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $27.95 | -29.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $55.13 | +38.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $39.79 | -0.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $29.46 | -26.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $27.95 | -29.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $43.35 | +8.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.24 | -9.0% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $45 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $50 |
| Base Case (6.9%) | $33 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $51 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.42 | 12.74 | 10.93 | 22.76 | 4.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.89 | 11.65 | 3.36 | 17.05 | 4.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.34 | 10.54 | 2.77 | 13.73 | 3.94 |
| P/FCF | 17.15 | 16.03 | 3.78 | 35.24 | 9.34 |
| P/FFO | 12.06 | 10.51 | 9.38 | 16.97 | 3.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.69 | 1.73 | 1.33 | 2.04 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 14.23 | 11.95 | 9.98 | 21.13 | 4.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 0.99 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.59 | 2.60 | 2.06 | 3.08 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RNST's fair value at $36.24 vs the current price of $39.82, implying -9.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.67 (P10) to $39.21 (P90), with a median of $36.87.
RNST's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +42.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover RNST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.80 (range: $32.00 — $41.00), implying -2.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RNST trades at the 8870th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RNST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1370.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.