MODEL VERDICT
Repay Holdings Corporation (RPAY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 89 analyst estimates | $16.37 | +403.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 79 industry peers | $19.77 | +508.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 83 industry peers | $17.58 | +440.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 106 industry peers | $7.90 | +143.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 106 industry peers | $10.65 | +227.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 83 industry peers | $20.28 | +524.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.35 | +680.1% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.72 | 67.08 | 52.32 | 209.75 | 86.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 40.55 | 44.59 | 10.48 | 70.94 | 24.69 |
| P/FCF | 77.83 | 26.20 | 6.52 | 337.43 | 128.00 |
| P/FFO | 22.58 | 17.06 | 7.33 | 48.88 | 19.77 |
| P/AFFO | 30.19 | 29.77 | 7.41 | 53.82 | 26.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.19 | 0.89 | 2.56 | 0.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.54 | 3.19 | 2.19 | 9.17 | 2.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPAY's fair value at $25.35 vs the current price of $3.25, implying +680.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.65 (P10) to $52.94 (P90), with a median of $26.45.
RPAY's current P/E of -29.5x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -224.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 109.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover RPAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +146.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RPAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.