MODEL VERDICT
Repay Holdings Corporation (RPAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $3.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $9.34 | +142.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $16.99 | +340.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $19.89 | +415.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $7.46 | +93.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $7.53 | +95.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $18.67 | +383.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.99 | +417.8% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 39.54 | 38.38 | 10.48 | 70.94 | 28.39 |
| P/FCF | 67.20 | 25.69 | 3.43 | 337.43 | 120.18 |
| P/FFO | 21.20 | 7.39 | 7.33 | 48.88 | 23.97 |
| P/AFFO | 22.94 | 7.59 | 7.41 | 53.82 | 26.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.26 | 0.96 | 0.65 | 2.56 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.34 | 3.19 | 1.01 | 9.17 | 2.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPAY's fair value at $19.99 vs the current price of $3.86, implying +417.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.03 (P10) to $42.23 (P90), with a median of $20.17.
RPAY's current P/E of -1.3x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -107.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover RPAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.83 (range: $3.50 — $9.00), implying +76.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RPAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.