Riskified Ltd. (RSKD)
Valuation Overview•Is Riskified Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
RSKD struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($137M) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-6.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $88.3M | +5.2% | +9.7% | +15.2% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$2.2M | — | +49.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$4.4M | +21.1% | +35.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.03 | +10.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.4M | -15.3% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 52.0% | 51.5% | 52.0% | 52.1% |
| Operating Margin | -6.4% | -16.3% | -23.0% | -18.5% |
| Net Margin | -5.2% | -12.8% | -31.4% | -24.9% |
| FCF Margin | 11.4% | 7.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.04 | $0.05 | +25.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +20.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +33.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.02 | $0.02 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.01 | $0.03 | +200.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -25.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +76.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +33.3% |
Total return is -0.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -25.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +2.9% | -6.4% | — |
| 1Y | -0.2% | -25.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +0.6% | -19.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -28.2% | -40.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -15.3% | -29.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Riskified Ltd. appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Riskified Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $2.48 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $5.75 (implying +16.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Riskified Ltd. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -22.2%.
Riskified Ltd. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 13.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -7.9% in the last 12 months.
Riskified Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.2% 1Y revenue growth and +10.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +16.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Riskified Ltd. include: -32.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.00x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.