MODEL VERDICT
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $56.98 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $60.78 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.62 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $53.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $61.56 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $82.81 | +37.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $141.53 | +134.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $52.87 | -12.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $105.44 | +74.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $70.97 | +17.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $41.25 | -31.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.57 | -62.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $107.35 | +77.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $51.34 | -14.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.49 | +41.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $47 | $55 | $64 | $72 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $48 | $57 | $65 | $74 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $41 | $50 | $59 | $68 | $77 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $42 | $51 | $60 | $70 | $79 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.38 | 14.71 | 11.55 | 37.92 | 11.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.17 | 12.45 | 10.34 | 35.52 | 10.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.18 | 10.99 | 6.64 | 28.59 | 8.22 |
| P/FCF | 21.92 | 21.46 | 7.69 | 32.91 | 10.29 |
| P/FFO | 12.30 | 11.57 | 6.79 | 17.66 | 4.81 |
| P/TBV | 3.78 | 3.34 | 1.57 | 5.80 | 1.47 |
| P/AFFO | 35.19 | 31.40 | 19.27 | 48.04 | 12.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.69 | 3.28 | 1.52 | 5.68 | 1.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.82 | 2.05 | 1.41 | 13.89 | 4.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RYAAY's fair value at $85.49 vs the current price of $60.33, implying +41.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.90 (P10) to $93.96 (P90), with a median of $81.09.
RYAAY's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 34.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -63.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover RYAAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.50 (range: $77.00 — $80.00), implying +30.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RYAAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8740.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.