Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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RYAAY Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $1.9B | $1.6B | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $4.2B | $4.8B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.35 | $2.92 | $4.10 | $5.30 | $6.89 | $9.08 | $10.87 |
| YoY Growth | — | -15.9% | +35.8% | +21.4% | +25.0% | +26.6% | +15.0% |
| Net Margin | 14.3% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
USD · RYAAY · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.6B | $18.5B | $22.2B | $26.1B | $29.0B |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $4.2B | $4.8B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.10 | $5.30 | $6.89 | $9.08 | $10.87 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | $819M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying RYAAY stock.
Ryanair Holdings plc's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $5.30. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 36/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Ryanair Holdings plc: Bear case $61, Base case $88, and Bull case $142. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Ryanair Holdings plc's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 19.0%, reaching approximately $18.5B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 36/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Ryanair Holdings plc's forward operating margin is estimated at 16.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($61) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 38.5% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.