MODEL VERDICT
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RYTM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $81.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $85.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $88.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $87.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $84.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $15.05 | -81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $14.48 | -82.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.84 | -25.6% | 100% | 58 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 15.49 | 7.88 | 1.77 | 52.01 | 17.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.96 | 7.88 | 1.74 | 50.02 | 16.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 63.66 | 36.66 | 26.24 | 156.95 | 54.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RYTM's fair value at $60.84 vs the current price of $81.81, implying -25.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.95 (P10) to $86.48 (P90), with a median of $47.23.
RYTM's current P/E of -26.3x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -194.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover RYTM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.00 (range: $125.00 — $157.00), implying +71.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RYTM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.