MODEL VERDICT
SentinelOne, Inc. (S)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $13.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $3.51 | -76.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $4.86 | -67.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $5.27 | -64.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $25.22 | +69.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $21.88 | +46.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $4.35 | -70.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.35 | -37.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.83 | 7.10 | 1.66 | 12.45 | 3.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.30 | 3.42 | 1.54 | 4.60 | 1.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 28.07 | 11.47 | 4.91 | 116.74 | 43.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates S's fair value at $9.35 vs the current price of $14.90, implying -37.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.61 (P10) to $13.83 (P90), with a median of $8.88.
S's current P/E of -10.9x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -150.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover S with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.68 (range: $15.00 — $24.00), implying +25.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for S.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.