Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)
Valuation Overview•Is Safety Insurance Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 61/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
SAFT struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($12M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (16.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (28.6% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 6.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $315.0M | +13.0% | +16.9% | +8.3% | +4.6% | |
| EBITDA | -$17.2M | — | +24.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$14.3M | +40.3% | +28.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.99 | +40.2% | +28.6% | -6.1% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$18.9M | +54.4% | +65.7% | +14.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 32.7% | 34.2% | 37.3% | 40.3% |
| Operating Margin | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| Net Margin | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% |
| FCF Margin | 13.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.45 | $-0.72 | -149.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.28 | $1.51 | +18.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.80 | $1.48 | -17.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.60 | $1.45 | -9.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.25 | $1.28 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.17 | $0.94 | -19.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.40 | $1.10 | -21.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.30 | $1.18 | -9.2% |
Total return is -4.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -29.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -4.4% | -13.7% | — |
| 1Y | -4.7% | -29.7% | +4.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +4.1% | -15.3% | +15.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.4% | -10.5% | +23.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +5.6% | -7.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) valuation, health, and returns.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -17.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $57.92)
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $57.92 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $69.12. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 61/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.2%.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. pays a 5.2% dividend yield, covered by a 54% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.9% buyback yield.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +13.0% 1Y revenue growth and +40.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +16.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Safety Insurance Group, Inc. include: -15.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.03x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.