MODEL VERDICT
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $75.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $76.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $76.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $74.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $74.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $60.60 | -19.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $118.69 | +57.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $81.32 | +7.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $200.52 | +165.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $60.60 | -19.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $150.87 | +99.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $140.53 | +85.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $80.71 | +6.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.43 | +27.5% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $68 | $78 | $88 | $98 |
| Conservative (5%) | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $100 |
| Base Case (-5.8%) | $54 | $63 | $72 | $81 | $90 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $53 | $62 | $70 | $79 | $88 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.54 | 14.98 | 8.49 | 59.37 | 17.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.65 | 11.58 | 6.76 | 44.75 | 13.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.66 | 10.91 | 6.50 | 36.00 | 10.28 |
| P/FCF | 15.31 | 11.84 | 9.53 | 29.35 | 7.58 |
| P/FFO | 18.08 | 14.05 | 8.08 | 43.29 | 12.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.33 | 1.76 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 19.45 | 15.99 | 8.67 | 46.50 | 12.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.76 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.41 | 1.47 | 1.09 | 1.62 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAFT's fair value at $96.43 vs the current price of $75.62, implying +27.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.28 (P10) to $114.08 (P90), with a median of $97.14.
SAFT's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +24.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.5x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
3 analysts cover SAFT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAFT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8340.0% to approximately $139. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.