Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)
Valuation Overview•Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 44/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
SDHC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.7% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $206.4M | -0.4% | +8.7% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $4.5M | — | -18.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $565K | -33.5% | -57.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.06 | -35.9% | -28.8% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$202K | -341.8% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.9% | 25.4% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Operating Margin | 5.9% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Net Margin | 0.9% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| FCF Margin | -0.1% | 2.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.05 | $-0.04 | -180.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.12 | $-0.08 | -166.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.26 | $-0.12 | -145.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.25 | $-0.13 | -152.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.30 | $-0.15 | -150.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.46 | $0.46 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.48 | $0.58 | +20.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.37 | $0.40 | +8.1% |
Total return is -22.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -42.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -14.9% | -22.2% | — |
| 1Y | -22.1% | -42.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -15.8% | -37.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -9.8% | -22.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -5.0% | -19.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $41.41 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.00 (implying -4.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 44/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.5%.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. pays a 21.1% dividend yield, covered by a 266% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -0.4% 1Y revenue growth and -35.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 45% of recent quarters with a -6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -4.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Smith Douglas Homes Corp. include: -52.0% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.42x market volatility), stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.42x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.