SDHC trades 4.1% above Wall Street's consensus target of $14.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes SDHC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 28.1x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 5 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of June 28, 2026, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $14.00, based on estimates from 5 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $14.60, this represents a potential downside of -4.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $122M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $14.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 0 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, SDHC trades at a trailing P/E of 12.6x and forward P/E of 28.1x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -45.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $12.85, with bear and bull scenarios of $8.09 and $16.93 respectively. Model confidence stands at 39/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.9B | $88.82 | $93.00 | +4.7% | Buy | 23.6x | 8 |
LGIHLGI Homes, Inc. | $1.5B | $65.84 | $88.80 | +34.9% | Buy | 22.8x | 13 |
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | $4.8B | $618.30 | $700.00 | +13.2% | Buy | 25.9x | 2 |
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | $3.5B | $80.24 | — | — | Hold | 13.8x | 12 |
TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $6.7B | $71.84 | $72.75 | +1.3% | Buy | 13.6x | 31 |
DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $48.2B | $166.29 | $163.86 | -1.5% | Hold | 15.7x | 52 |
LENLennar Corporation | $23.2B | $93.52 | $89.17 | -4.7% | Buy | 16.6x | 50 |
PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $26.4B | $137.61 | $144.50 | +5.0% | Hold | 13.8x | 44 |
TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $15.5B | $164.06 | $173.88 | +6.0% | Hold | 12.8x | 46 |
NVRNVR, Inc. | $18.4B | $6828.62 | $7465.33 | +9.3% | Buy | 19.1x | 24 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SDHC stock.
Wall Street's consensus price target for SDHC is $14, -4.1% from its current price of $14.6. The below-market target from 5 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
SDHC has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 5 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is leaning bearish, with 1 Sell/Strong Sell ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $14 implies -4.1% downside from current levels.
SDHC trades at a forward P/E of 28.131x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $14 (-4.1% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $14 for SDHC, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $14 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $17 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SDHC is moderately covered, with 5 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 0 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SDHC stock forecast based on 5 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $14, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $14 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $13, with bear/bull scenarios of $8/$17.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SDHC's fair value at $13 (base case), with a bear case of $8 and bull case of $17. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 39/100.
SDHC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 12.6x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on SDHC, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $14 (-4.1% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SDHC analyst price targets range from $14 to $14, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $14 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $8-$17 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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