Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $14.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $15.22 | Pending | +2.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $13 | $16 | $18 | $21 |
| Base Case (-9.7%) | $9 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.98 | 8.16 | 5.29 | 12.80 | 2.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.67 | 12.37 | 8.81 | 16.46 | 2.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.82 | 8.19 | 7.37 | 11.04 | 1.59 |
| P/FCF | 7.27 | 5.05 | 2.19 | 17.64 | 5.60 |
| P/FFO | 4.29 | 4.35 | 3.41 | 5.62 | 0.83 |
| P/AFFO | 7.92 | 7.51 | 4.86 | 12.00 | 2.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 1.51 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates SEM's fair value at $21.21 vs the current price of $14.97, implying +41.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
SEM's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -35.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover SEM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $17.00 — $19.00), implying +20.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SEM trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SEM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.