MODEL VERDICT
Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $16.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $23.53 | +43.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $9.16 | -44.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.90 | +8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $41.78 | +154.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $9.16 | -44.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $33.62 | +104.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $57.85 | +251.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $55.26 | +236.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $19.17 | +16.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $40.65 | +147.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.89 | +21.0% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
| Base Case (-9.4%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.95 | 8.16 | 5.29 | 12.58 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.88 | 12.48 | 8.81 | 16.46 | 2.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.22 | 8.48 | 7.37 | 11.61 | 1.79 |
| P/FCF | 6.92 | 4.79 | 2.19 | 17.64 | 5.20 |
| P/FFO | 4.59 | 4.54 | 3.41 | 6.40 | 1.10 |
| P/AFFO | 7.83 | 7.33 | 4.86 | 12.00 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 1.51 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates SEM's fair value at $19.89 vs the current price of $16.44, implying +21.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.01 (P10) to $25.69 (P90), with a median of $21.79.
SEM's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -8.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover SEM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $17.00 — $19.00), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SEM trades at the 3640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SEM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 270.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.