Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)
SEM Price Targets Summary
Research data · Not investment adviceHealthcare · Medical - Care FacilitiesMCap: —Model v2Updated Feb 20, 2026
Bear Case
6.69
EPS FY+2: $0.81
Base Case
8.50
-47.7% vs current
Bull Case
22.93
EPS FY+2: $2.15
Model Confidence
49/100
Target Spread
$16
Current Price (Ref)
$16.25
Model vs Consensus
Below (-31.0%)
Analyst Blend Weight
15% FY1
Buyback Rate
1.2%/yr
12-Month Price Forecast Terminal
Bear / Base / Bull · Model v2Bear $7 (-59%)Base $9 (-48%)Bull $23 (+41%)
Highest$22.9USD
Average$8.5USD
Lowest$6.7USD
$16.25Mar 4, 2026
Revenue Forecast
Probability-Weighted ModelStory: Revenue moves from $5.5B (2025A) to $2.8B (2028E) — an implied -48.0% expansion over the forecast window.
Model ModeBlended CAGR
FY+1 Growth-4.5%
FY+1 Revenue$3.8B
Projected CAGR-13.3%
Projected 4Y Revenue CAGR-7.9%
Operating Income Forecast
Margin Path EngineStory: Operating income scales from $2M (2025A) to $141M (2028E) — +8786.2% through the forward window. Margin path contributes -334 bps.
Margin Trendcontracting
FY+1 Op Margin2.6%
FY+1 Op Income$97M
Margin Δ-334 bps
Net Income & EPS Forecast
EPS Path EngineStory: Net income grows from $146M (2025A) to $101M (2028E) — -30.7% over the forward horizon. EPS compounds at -3.4% CAGR.
FY+1 EPS$0.91
FY+1 Growth+1.9%
FY+1 Net Income$114M
4Y EPS CAGR-3.4%
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $243M | $214M | $146M | $114M | $112M | $99M | $101M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.91 | $1.66 | $1.16 | $0.91 | $0.88 | $0.76 | $0.77 |
| YoY Growth | — | -12.1% | -31.7% | -21.7% | -2.1% | -11.8% | +2.5% |
| Net Margin | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
Comprehensive Financial Terminal
USD · SEM · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $3.8B | $3.4B | $2.9B | $2.8B |
| Net Income | $146M | $114M | $112M | $99M | $101M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.16 | $0.91 | $0.88 | $0.76 | $0.77 |
| Free Cash Flow | $383M | $197M | $192M | $168M | $173M |
Forecast Confidence
Score: 49/10049
/100
Low Confidence
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Top Strengths
Margin Stability91%
Data Depth100%
Main Risk Driver
Revenue Predictability0%
What this means: Confidence is a reliability meter for forecast stability, not a return guarantee.
Show factor details
Revenue Predictability
Margin Stability
Earnings Beat Rate
Data Depth
Analyst Coverage
Model-Consensus Agreement
Analyst Blending
Analyst Weight FY+115%
Analyst Weight FY+215%
Model-Only EPS FY+1$0.84
Blended EPS FY+1$0.91
Model vs Consensus
AlignmentBelow
Gap-31.0%
Analyst EPS FY+1$1.32
Analyst Rev FY+1$5.7B
Frequently Asked Questions
What is SEM earnings per share (EPS) forecast for next year?
Select Medical Holdings Corporation's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $0.91. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 49/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
What is the 12-month price target for SEM stock?
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Select Medical Holdings Corporation: Bear case $7, Base case $9, and Bull case $23. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
How fast is SEM's revenue expected to grow?
Select Medical Holdings Corporation's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -4.5%, reaching approximately $3.8B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
How accurate are these SEM earnings estimates?
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 49/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
What is SEM's operating margin outlook?
Select Medical Holdings Corporation's forward operating margin is estimated at 2.6% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
How does the SEM estimate model work?
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
What could go wrong with SEM's forecast?
The bear case ($7) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
How does this compare to Wall Street analyst estimates for SEM?
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 31.0% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.
Our Methodology
Institutional-grade research documentationEstimates & Forecasts
Revenue CAGR blending, margin path engine, analyst fusion, and scenario analysis.
Relative Valuation
Peer universe construction, Monte Carlo simulation, confidence scoring, and signal frameworks.
DCF Intrinsic Value
Two-stage discounted cash flow with WACC, Gordon Growth terminal value, and sensitivity analysis.