MODEL VERDICT
Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (SFST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $56.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $56.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $57.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $58.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $58.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $48.19 | -15.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $56.31 | -0.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $66.51 | +17.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $48.15 | -15.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $56.27 | -1.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.63 | -2.1% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $43 | $51 | $58 | $66 | $74 |
| Conservative (6%) | $44 | $52 | $60 | $68 | $76 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $45 | $54 | $62 | $70 | $78 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $47 | $55 | $64 | $72 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.32 | 13.74 | 10.68 | 22.35 | 4.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.33 | 13.41 | 7.48 | 32.95 | 9.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.86 | 12.22 | 7.21 | 25.81 | 6.78 |
| P/FCF | 17.03 | 13.95 | 9.68 | 33.44 | 8.28 |
| P/FFO | 12.88 | 11.88 | 10.18 | 16.43 | 2.45 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1.80 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 17.76 | 17.63 | 12.07 | 22.17 | 3.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1.80 | 0.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.55 | 2.26 | 1.51 | 4.53 | 1.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SFST's fair value at $55.63 vs the current price of $56.81, implying -2.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.00 (P10) to $60.98 (P90), with a median of $55.88.
SFST's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 12.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +17.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
7 analysts cover SFST with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $64.00 (range: $64.00 — $64.00), implying +12.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SFST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4450.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.