MODEL VERDICT
Sprott Inc. (SII)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $118.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $122.79 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $131.01 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $124.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $129.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $27.40 | -76.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $28.93 | -75.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $25.30 | -78.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $28.40 | -76.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $27.05 | -77.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $47.68 | -59.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.02 | -62.1% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $106 | $117 | $128 | $140 | $151 |
| Conservative (13%) | $110 | $122 | $134 | $146 | $158 |
| Base Case (19.2%) | $117 | $130 | $142 | $155 | $167 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $124 | $137 | $150 | $164 | $177 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.64 | 35.23 | 21.22 | 56.34 | 13.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.63 | 24.77 | 14.49 | 39.58 | 8.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.10 | 18.00 | 16.72 | 33.06 | 5.97 |
| P/FCF | 24.63 | 26.38 | 16.22 | 31.25 | 5.41 |
| P/FFO | 30.80 | 30.96 | 19.83 | 42.34 | 9.41 |
| P/TBV | 8.74 | 8.54 | 4.28 | 11.49 | 2.76 |
| P/AFFO | 32.49 | 31.54 | 20.55 | 50.34 | 11.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.58 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 6.88 | 1.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.21 | 6.53 | 5.66 | 51.91 | 17.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SII's fair value at $45.02 vs the current price of $118.80, implying -62.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.70 (P10) to $55.28 (P90), with a median of $46.25.
SII's current P/E of 44.8x compares to the industry median of 10.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +333.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover SII with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SII trades at the 8700th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (35.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SII's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (32.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1940.0% to approximately $142. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.