MODEL VERDICT
Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $18.40 | +77.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 45 industry peers | $29.20 | +181.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 43 bank peers | $18.21 | +75.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 33 industry peers | $12.85 | +23.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 42 industry peers | $19.08 | +83.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 42 analyst estimates | $11.66 | +12.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.01 | +102.2% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (36%) | $8 | $10 | $15 | $19 | $23 |
| Conservative (59%) | $10 | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 |
| Base Case (90.9%) | $12 | $15 | $20 | $26 | $32 |
| Bull Case (123%) | $14 | $17 | $24 | $30 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.61 | 4.16 | 2.67 | 121.17 | 52.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.53 | 5.42 | 3.84 | 166.84 | 72.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.78 | 5.03 | 3.56 | 39.64 | 15.60 |
| P/FCF | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.52 | 2.73 | 0.41 |
| P/FFO | 9.16 | 3.80 | 2.39 | 30.85 | 12.17 |
| P/TBV | 1.04 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 1.35 | 0.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MFIN's fair value at $21.01 vs the current price of $10.39, implying +102.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.87 (P10) to $35.65 (P90), with a median of $21.71.
MFIN's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 12.1x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -43.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover MFIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MFIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9640.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.