MODEL VERDICT
SLM Corporation (SLM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $18.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $22.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $24.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $26.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $27.61 | Below threshold | -2.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $31.36 | +67.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $14.96 | -20.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $12.79 | -31.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $14.11 | -24.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $33.10 | +76.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $22.87 | +22.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.91 | +16.9% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $11 | $14 | $20 | $26 | $31 |
| Conservative (10%) | $12 | $15 | $21 | $26 | $32 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $12 | $15 | $22 | $28 | $34 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $13 | $16 | $23 | $29 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.58 | 7.77 | 5.45 | 10.29 | 1.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.89 | 7.13 | 3.92 | 9.77 | 2.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.75 | 6.98 | 3.85 | 9.56 | 2.27 |
| P/FFO | 7.22 | 7.29 | 5.35 | 9.69 | 1.66 |
| P/TBV | 2.18 | 2.47 | 1.16 | 2.93 | 0.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 2.38 | 1.16 | 2.93 | 0.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.95 | 1.94 | 1.58 | 2.61 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLM's fair value at $21.91 vs the current price of $18.74, implying +16.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.93 (P10) to $26.83 (P90), with a median of $22.66.
SLM's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -40.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover SLM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.83 (range: $23.00 — $40.00), implying +69.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SLM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4700.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.