MODEL VERDICT
Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $2.71 | -51.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $2.50 | -55.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 17 industry peers | $3.84 | -31.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $2.82 | -49.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $1.70 | -69.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $3.28 | -41.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $5.50 | -1.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $3.64 | -34.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 17 industry peers | $3.84 | -31.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $3.13 | -43.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.78 | -32.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 17.61 | 13.83 | 3.78 | 53.83 | 16.49 |
| P/FCF | 36.73 | 28.09 | 9.04 | 81.70 | 31.71 |
| P/FFO | 20.60 | 17.76 | 1.23 | 67.56 | 21.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.30 | 0.15 | 1.75 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 36.15 | 38.28 | 1.42 | 62.94 | 22.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 1.21 | 0.15 | 1.63 | 0.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.45 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLNG's fair value at $3.78 vs the current price of $5.58, implying -32.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.98 (P10) to $5.03 (P90), with a median of $3.92.
SLNG's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (17 peers in the group). This represents a +45.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover SLNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SLNG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.